Petr Durnovo Analysis

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Durnovo's memorandum was interesting on two accounts. It was a brilliant prophetic statement on the possible collapse of the Russian monarchy as a result of a war with Germany, as well as its attempt to persuade the Tsar that Russia's best interests including the advance of war lay with realizing that the "English orientation of our diplomacy is in essence profoundly wrong"(p.44) and that therefore the proper course lay with a rapprochement with Germany.


Durnovo feels that because of the signing of the Anglo-Russian accord, (following the Russo-Japanese war) has put Russia in a messy position. This accord, he believes, has brought nothing of value to Russia and that it threatens an inevitable clash with Germany (p.6). He carries on to say that if Russia and England do go to war with Germany, Russia will be the one doing all of the "dirty work" by providing manpower, and maintaining defense. He feels as though "England is hardly capable of taking a considerable part in a continental war" and that "the part of a battering ram, making a breach in the very thick wall of the German defense will be ours [theirs]" (p.6). The amount of sacrifices Russia will have to make due to this siding with England will take an enormous toll on her economy.


It is quite clear throughout the document that Durnovo feels Russia will be responsible for the "dirty work" and putting forth the most effort during the war. He is quite puzzled, however, as to how Russia is expected to provide her allies with the manpower and at the same time maintain a defense. Durnovo then reminds the Tsar "because of their dependence upon foreign industry, Russia is unable to provide successfully" (p.8). This is because if an outbreak of war does occur, the Baltic Sea will be blockaded, preventing the deliverance of any and all supplies into Russia.


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So, for Russia's best interests, Durnovo feels that Russia should establish friendly relations through rapprochement with Germany. He feels that the vital interests of Russia and Germany do not conflict; therefore, rekindling a bond would not be a terrible thing. As mentioned above, without a strong German influence in Russia, her economy would slowly wither away. "Russia is far too poor both in capital and in industrial enterprise, to get along without the import of foreign capital" (p.41). Durnovo believes that German capital is far too advantageous to Russia and must be handled with care.


Russia must therefore handle its relationship with Germany carefully, and not overstep her grounds, since Germany plays such a vital role for Russia's existence. Durnovo also points out that there is no reason as to why Germany and Russia should not be "friendly nations". He points out that Germany and Russia do not have conflicting interests, and therefore have nothing really to feud over. "The vital interests of Germany and Russia do not conflict. There are fundamental grounds for a peaceable existence of these two states." (p.8). To further his point he gives an example of how Germany's interests are in those colonies that border the sea, and how Russia has no interest in this region at all.


Reviewing all that has been said, Durnovo concludes by summarizing his opinions, and expresses them in a manner that the Tsar will hopefully consider. He mentions yet again that England and Russia do not share any common grounds whatsoever and should be left to take her own path. Durnovo feels that just because England has a problem with German orientation, Russia should not quarrel on her account. Keeping Russia's best interests in mind, Durnovo again tries to persuade the Tsar one last time, that rapprochement with Germany would be the path to take, leaving England to handle her own affairs. The future, Durnovo leaves in the hands of the Tsar, hoping that what he has said has made a difference.


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