POSITIVE TRENDS IN ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN

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Since independence the growth record of Pakistans economy has been quite respectable and compares favorably with other countries in South Asia.


Pakistans economy displayed broad-based positive trends during the outgoing fiscal 00-.


There are three challenges ahead. First, to raising the level of investments - both public and private to sustain growth rate. Second, to reduce poverty and improving social indicators by reducing the social gap. Third, to improving the health of the public sector entities, particularly power utilities, which posed serious risk to the budget.


Pakistans per capita income is the highest in South Asia except for Sri Lanka.


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The country has moved out of the first stage of industrialization focused on consumer goods to more sophisticated basic and heavy engineering goods. In agriculture, the growth has kept ahead of the population, an achievement that has eluded many developing countries.


The real GNP at factor cost grew by 8.4 per cent in 00- against 5. per cent last year, mainly on account of 47 per cent increase in net factors income from abroad.


The agriculture sector registered a 4. per cent growth against a target of .5 per cent, with major crops growing at 5.8 per cent.


The large-scale manufacturing grew by 8.7 per cent against a target of 6 per cent and last years growth of 4. per cent.


Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) rising from 1,770 points in June 00 to an all time high of ,117 points on May 00, registering an increase of 76 per cent.


The total consolidated revenue is estimated at Rs706.1 billion in 00- as against Rs64.1 last year, registering an increase of 1.1 per cent. Against this, total consolidated expenditure is estimated at Rs8.5 billion which is 8 per cent higher than last year.


The exchange rate appreciation to the extent of 4 per cent has also reduced debt payable in foreign exchange by more than 5 billion. It stood at 1. trillion or 47. per cent of the GDP.


The increase in imports was attributed to additional imports spending on machinery by 5.6 per cent.


The trade deficit posted an improvement of 14 per cent, or $18.8 million.


Public debt had reduced from Rs.65 trillion in June 00 to Rs.64 trillion, showing a reduction of around Rs5 billion.


The revenue collection has already achieved a growth rate of 15 per cent, a first in many years.


To achieve this target, the country needs a higher level of investment both domestic and foreign. That would make it possible to derive the maximum benefit out of the new favorable turn in the countrys economic fortunes.


The menacing growth of corruption and poor human resources development have blemished Pakistans economic record. The growth record of Pakistans economy since independence has been quite respectable and compares favorably with other countries in South Asia. The flow of goods and services from economic activities within the country which is measured by gross domestic product (GDP) has expanded at a rate of around five per cent, which is a commendable achievement. Consequently, in terms of 15-60 prices, per capita income rose from Rs 16 at the time of independence to Rs 1,064 in 18-. In dollar terms the increase over the 5-year-period has been from $116 to $48. Pakistans per capita income is the highest in South Asia except for Sri Lanka.


It cannot be denied that Pakistan, which at the time of independence was regarded as an economic wasteland has, through concerted efforts, institutionalized growth. The country has also moved out of the first stage of industrialization focused on consumer goods to more sophisticated basic and heavy engineering goods. In agriculture, the growth has kept ahead of the population, an achievement which has eluded many developing countries.


The educational network has shown substantial expansion. Enrolment at the primary school level increased from 0.77 million in 148 to 17. million 18-. There are at present 6 universities, 65 professional colleges, 75 arts and science colleges and 48 secondary vocational institutes in the country. While even most of the urban areas at the time of independence had no electricity, most of the villages in Pakistan are equipped with electricity today. Fifty-two years ago, the total number of telephones in Pakistan was no more than 10,000 while at present their number is ,861,000 (.8 m).


Savings and investment rates in Pakistan are unusually low, even relative to many other low-income countries At these low rates of savings and investment, it would not be possible for Pakistan to support future economic growth of seven per cent a year, which is socially necessary, in view of Pakistans neglected infrastructure system and low levels of investment in social sectors. Efforts to maintain a high rate of growth without mobilizing more national savings would result in a rapid accumulation of non-concessional external debt with serious consequences for the balance of payments position of the country in the not too distant future. The main imbalance between savings and investment in Pakistan arises in the public sector. The overall budget deficit - the gap between the consolidated public revenues and expenditures - is currently one of the most serious macro-problems facing Pakistans economy


The country is currently engaged in finalizing the ninth five-year plan (18-00). In terms of the approach document to this plan, the economy should move forward on a rapid and steady path so that it can get a GDP growth of seven per cent annually rather than the 5.7 per annually during 188-6 and around .8 per cent per annum during 16-. The ninth plan was being prepared at a time when the economy was under severe pressure on account of large macro-economic imbalances, unfavorable international economic environment, massive burden of internal and external debt and institutional erosion.


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